Journal De Bruxelles - Conservatives top Bulgarian elections but fall short of majority

In the seventh such vote in four years, Borisov's GERB party repeated its performance in the previous ballot last June by winning between 25 and 27 percent of the vote, according to the polls.

Reformist coalition PP-DB followed with around 15 percent, while the pro-Russia ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane party came third, gaining around 13 percent of the ballots.

The European Union's poorest member country has been at a standstill since 2020, when massive anti-corruption protests brought down Borisov's cabinet.

Six consecutive votes since then have failed to yield a stable government, an impasse that has favoured the country's far right.

"The people want a government, stability, and security," Borisov said as he voted, wearing jeans and a black jacket.

But there is a high chance that GERB will yet again struggle to find partners to govern in the country's extremely fragmented parliament, where seven to nine parties are expected to be represented.

- 'Without outside interference' -

Compared to the last election, voter turnout appeared to have slightly increased to 35 percent one hour before the polls closed.

In June, turnout plummeted to just 34 percent -- the lowest since the end of communism.

According to a recent opinion poll, about 60 percent of Bulgarians surveyed view the political deadlock as "extremely alarming".

On the streets of the capital Sofia, the rising voter apathy was palpable.

"We're fed up, that's for sure," said Aneliya Ivanova.

"We're tired of being stuck in a carousel that goes round and round, and every time it's the same result," the 33-year-old IT worker told AFP.

The political impasse -- which is unprecedented since 1989 -- has also favoured the Vazrazhdane party.

"Bulgaria must remain an independent country, without outside interference," the group's president Kostadin Kostadinov said, referring to Brussels and the United States.

Vazrazhdane appears to have gained influence after proposing a law banning LGBTQ "propaganda" that was passed by a large majority in parliament in August.

The legislation was directly inspired by a similar law in Russia, and even though Bulgaria is a NATO member, many citizens remain strongly pro-Russian.

"Vazrazhdane's influence is growing to the point where the party is becoming a potential partner for GERB," Dobromir Zhivkov, director of the Market Links institute, told AFP.

- Undecided White House race -

GERB also supported the controversial anti-LGBTQ law, paving the way for a closer relationship with Vazrazhdane, while Borisov has insisted that his "partners in Brussels and Washington won't allow that".

During his time as prime minister, he carefully navigated geopolitical fault lines, maintaining good relations with Moscow while respecting the positions of the EU and NATO.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Borisov has clearly sided with other Western countries in supporting Kyiv's fight against Moscow.

But a possible victory for Donald Trump in the November US presidential election could change that, according to analyst Zhivkov.

The election of the Republican candidate and his "leniency towards corruption", Zhivkov said, could also prompt GERB to form a minority cabinet that relies on tacit backing from former tycoon Delyan Peevski, who remains the target of US and British sanctions.

The 44-year-old lawmaker has created a breakaway faction within the Turkish minority MRF party, which performed better than expected on Sunday, winning almost 10 percent of the vote.

Amid fears of electoral fraud, public prosecutors launched hundreds of investigations ahead of the vote. More than 70 people suspected of vote-buying have been arrested.

Prolonged political instability has put key anti-corruption reforms as well as the country's energy transition on hold, jeopardising the payout of European funds.

And Bulgaria's goals of joining the eurozone and the free movement Schengen area via land have slipped further away.

A further burden to the country is the cost of organising seven elections which amounts to almost 400 million euros ($433 million).

W.Baert --JdB